At the recent African Utility Week in May 2018, Marius Oosthuizen, Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), the University of Pretoria, launched a Scenario Report based on a study specifically commissioned for the event. The report looks at the future of the power industry and Africa’s geopolitics, assisting energy leaders to predict the sector’s future and make effective decisions. Stakeholders are starting to realise that affordable energy can lead to acceleration ineconomic development as well as social improvement.
According to the GIBS Report, there are 4 scenarios:
SCENARIO 1: THE LIONS OF AFRICA
In 2030 African utilities have become a pride of agile lions, hunting for new opportunities in collaboration with business and community partners.
SCENARIO 2: HUNGRY HYENAS
In 2030 African utilities have become a pack of hungry hyenas, scavenging for short-term returns and manipulating the interests of their business and community stakeholders.
SCENARIO 3: ELEPHANT HERD
In 2030 African utilities have become a herd of African elephants, dominating the energy landscape in Africa with bold investments funded from abroad. Businesses and communities have little choice but to pay a premium to cover the rising cost of sovereign debt that accompanied the rapid expansion of bulk energy infrastructure between 2020 and 2040.
SCENARIO 4: WHITE ELEPHANTS
In 2030 African utilities have become a herd of white elephants, struggling for survival and relevance on a vibrant African continent.